0 Interactive Map: Job Gains and Losses in the Recovery by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc)

Inquiring minds are investigating job creation and losses during the economic recovery. Data for following Tableau Software interactive map is courtesy of Economic Modeling Specialists.

The interactive map below may take a while to load. Please give it time on a slow connection.

Map Usage Notes

Hover your cursor over any line to see additional information. You can also select a single category from the drop-down boxes to isolate a particular type of job.

Number and Types of Jobs Since 2007

Description	2007 Jobs	2008 Jobs	2009 Jobs	2010 Jobs	2011 Jobs	2012 Jobs
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting	1,922,790	1,869,078	1,839,432	1,834,643	1,859,107	1,857,019
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction	677,207	729,813	658,373	667,226	745,595	784,070
Utilities	549,539	557,983	560,714	551,287	549,921	556,529
Construction	9,954,961	9,423,176	8,214,435	7,633,863	7,607,315	7,594,530
Manufacturing	14,093,901	13,629,742	12,051,829	11,712,063	11,920,262	12,116,646
Wholesale Trade	6,180,035	6,133,949	5,738,315	5,634,236	5,711,683	5,817,036
Retail Trade	16,279,661	16,040,307	15,262,809	15,158,575	15,338,727	15,427,475
Transportation and Warehousing	4,942,074	4,904,568	4,601,110	4,544,128	4,664,351	4,763,272
Information	3,181,035	3,129,245	2,949,820	2,838,954	2,808,734	2,801,533
Finance and Insurance	6,462,141	6,308,789	6,058,519	5,976,245	6,042,862	6,081,019
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing	2,767,868	2,699,430	2,553,130	2,477,330	2,439,220	2,467,061
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services	8,970,748	9,110,964	8,789,436	8,744,022	8,951,222	9,202,138
Management of Companies and Enterprises	1,839,616	1,895,417	1,855,139	1,854,778	1,914,543	1,949,283
Admin and Support and Waste Management	9,301,860	8,892,117	8,081,998	8,311,872	8,626,800	8,934,731
Educational Services (Private)	3,317,313	3,413,586	3,504,764	3,575,972	3,666,851	3,760,523
Health Care and Social Assistance	16,304,386	16,716,857	17,036,693	17,301,036	17,506,396	17,848,232
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation	2,375,489	2,389,692	2,337,992	2,313,773	2,336,448	2,342,772
Accommodation and Food Services	11,615,709	11,643,560	11,306,013	11,322,307	11,588,412	11,875,069
Other Services (except Public Administration)	7,502,059	7,522,620	7,451,832	7,398,326	7,478,030	7,525,044
Government	24,187,207	24,510,271	24,568,231	24,561,911	24,253,390	24,152,210
Unclassified Industry	216,926	208,532	173,872	152,667	173,741	186,339
Total	152,642,524	151,729,695	145,594,456	144,565,212	146,183,610	148,042,530

Gains and Losses Since End of 2007

Description	2012 - 2007
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting	-65,771
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction	106,863
Utilities	6,990
Construction	-2,360,431
Manufacturing	-1,977,255
Wholesale Trade	-362,999
Retail Trade	-852,186
Transportation and Warehousing	-178,802
Information	-379,502
Finance and Insurance	-381,122
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing	-300,807
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services	231,390
Management of Companies and Enterprises	109,667
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services	-367,129
Educational Services (Private)	443,210
Health Care and Social Assistance	1,543,846
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation	-32,717
Accommodation and Food Services	259,360
Other Services (except Public Administration)	22,985
Government	-34,997
Unclassified Industry	-30,587
Total	-4,599,994

Job Winners

• Healthcare gained jobs every year since 2007, a total of  1,543,846
• Private Education Services gained every year since 2007, a total of 443,210
• Mining and Quarrying gained every year since 2007, a total of 106,863 

Job Losers

• Construction lost jobs every year since 2007, a total of -2,360,431
• Information lost jobs every year since 2007, a total of  -379,502
• Government lost jobs every year since 200, a total of -34,997
• Real Estate lost jobs every year from 2007-2011, a total of -300,807 since 2007
• Manufacturing has gained jobs two consecutive years but the 2007-2012 total is -1,977,255
• Retail Trade has gained jobs two consecutive years but the 2007-2012 total is -852,186

Lost and Gone Forever

The three largest net losers (construction, manufacturing, retail trade) have a net combined total of -5,189,872 since 2007. Most of those jobs are lost and gone forever.

Another 300,807 real estate jobs are lost and gone forever, as are 381,122 Finance and Insurance jobs, and  379,502 Information jobs.

Economic Modeling Data Notes

Data is yearly, so the period 2007-2012 is from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2012. Snapshots below are from end-of year numbers.

Data is from multiple sources as explained below so it will not exactly match BLS reported numbers.

Comments from Economic Modeling Specialists

“Our data is used by many to research and understand regional employment trends and dynamics. It’s composed of comprehensive information on industries, occupations, demographics — as well as things like occupational skills, education, training, and even the names and size of companies in your region broken down by industry.

To do this we link nearly 90 data sources — from federal sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics to state and private sources.

If you’ve ever worked with this sort of information, you know it can be hard to collect and present. It’s also often incomplete and outdated. So we organize the data, bring it up to date, and build software and reports around it so you can put it to use more quickly and effectively”

Thanks to Economic Modeling Specialists and Mike Klaczynski at Tableau Software for this post.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

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0 Global PC Shipments Decline 6.4%; Best Buy Sales Flat; Toys R Us Sales Decline 4.5%; 4th Quarter GDP Estimate Reduced to .8% from 1.5%

Holiday sales of electronics and toys plunged this past Christmas season. Also of note, JPMorgan lowered its annualized 4th quarter GDP estimates down to .8% from 1.5%. Nonetheless, analysts see a silver lining to the data. They always do.

Toys R Us Sales Decline 4.5%

MSN Money reports Gloomy Holiday Sales at Toys R Us

Toys R Us reported a key sales figure declined in November and December, hurt by weak demand for videogames, electronics and toys and shoppers who pulled back because of Superstorm Sandy.

"We believe our December sales were impacted by softness in the overall markets for videogames, electronics and toys, and by the uncertain economic environment in the U.S. and abroad," said CEO Jerry Storch.

The privately held toy store owner said revenue from domestic stores open at least one year fell 4.5 percent in the U.S. in November and December combined. In December alone, that figure fell 1.8 percent. The company operates more than 800 namesake and Babies R Us stores in the U.S. and another 600-plus stores overseas.

Best Buy Sales Flat to Down

USA Today reports Best Buy sales flat or down during holidays

Struggling consumer electronics chain Best Buy said Friday that a key revenue metric declined during the critical holiday season.

But its flat performance in the U.S. was better than the past several quarters, and online revenue showed strong growth.

The chain said revenue at stores open at least a year fell 1.4% for the nine weeks ended Jan. 5. This figure is a key gauge of a retailer's health because it excludes results from stores recently opened or closed.

The company's U.S. performance was flat. While this was a hair below the 0.3% increase Best Buy reported in the prior-year period, President and CEO Hubert Joly said in a statement that it was an improvement over the past several quarters.

Revenue at stores open at least a year declined 6.4% internationally, stung by softness in China and Canada.

Total revenue for the holiday period fell slightly to $12.8 billion from $12.9 billion.

Global PC Shipments Decline 6.4%

USA Today reports Global PC shipments fall 6.4% to 89.8 million in 4Q

Desktop and laptop sales in the fourth quarter fell 6.4% from a year earlier to 89.8 million, affirming the PC market's gradual decline throughout 2012, according to an industry report released Friday.

With consumers steering more of their tech budgets to tablets and smartphones, "the PC market continued to take a back seat to competing devices and sustained economic woes," says the IDC, which compiles the data via its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

The 4th-quarter tumble also exceeded IDC's forecast of a 4.4% decline for the October-December period, and marks the first time in more than five years that the PC market has seen a year-on-year decline during the holiday season, its report noted.

Underscoring the PC's market's sustained weakness for much of last year, IDC also said 2012 sales worldwide fell 3.2% to 352.4 million.

In the U.S., PC sales were 4.5% lower in the fourth quarter, contributing to a decline of 7% in 2012.

While the current economic conditions that drive consumers' penny-pinching plays a role in sluggish PC demand, companies are also stretching their resources to design and market newly emerging portable devices, including tablets, smartphones that function like tablets, and ultrabooks.

Windows 8, a new operating system by Microsoft released late last year, stirred some new interest in PCs as it allowed PC makers to design and introduce computers with a touch display. But lingering questions about the use of touch on Windows PCs and the lack of applications that can fully utilize the function slowed consumer spending, says the IDC report.

"Although the third quarter was focused on the clearing of Windows 7 inventory, preliminary research indicates the clearance did not significantly boost the uptake of Windows 8 systems in the fourth quarter," said IDC analyst Jay Chou. "Lost in the shuffle to promote a touch-centric PC, vendors have not forcefully stressed other features that promote a more secure, reliable and efficient user experience."

People have decided the PC they already own is quite fine. Indeed, there is no reason to upgrade and some good reasons not to.

4th Quarter GDP Estimate Reduced to .8% from 1.5%

MarketWatch reports GDP forecasts cut on wider trade deficit.

J.P.Morgan analysts cut their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth to an annualized 0.8% from a prior forecast of 1.5%.

“The trade deficit for the month was much wider than expected, and it now looks like net exports will subtract a few tenths from GDP growth in the fourth quarter,” according to a J.P. Morgan research note. Elsewhere, Barclays analysts cut their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 1.3% from 2.0%, while analysts with Morgan Stanley cut their forecast to 0.7% from 1.5%.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. trade deficit widened in November to the highest point since April. The trade gap widened 15.8% to $48.7 billion in November.

Imports rose 3.8% to $231.3 billion, the highest level since April, while exports increased 1% to $182.6 billion. Government analysts revised the deficit in October to $42.1 billion.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $41.3 billion in November from a prior October estimate of $42.2 billion.

Silver lining

Some analysts saw a silver lining in Friday’s trade report.

While trade deficits cut economic growth, the pickup in both imports and exports could also be a positive signal, according to Millan Mulraine, a macro strategist at TD Securities.

“While from a GDP perspective the surge in the real deficit is a net negative for growth, the strong gains in consumer goods could be a signal in improving domestic growth momentum — even though some of the rise could be attributed to the rebound from Sandy,” Mulraine wrote in a research note.

Meanwhile, Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research, said the widening trade deficit indicates the relative strength of the U.S.

You have to be a real economic illiterate to see silver linings due to a hurricane and rising trade deficits, but such ignorance is unfortunately commonplace.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 Catalonia Drafts Declaration of Sovereignty, Announces Vote of Independence, Seeks Self-Determination in 2014

Via Google translate from El Pais, please consider Catalonia proclaimed "sovereign subject"

The Catalan Parliament proclaimed that Catalonia is "legal and sovereign political subject" in the vote will mark the formal start of the independence process and solemnly opened by the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas . The Catalan House will vote on the first floor of the legislature, scheduled for the 23th, the statement called sovereignty of Catalonia, first step to call the query for self-determination in 2014.

Convergence and Union and Republican Left (ERC) yesterday closed a first draft of the text, they sent groups to a greater or lesser extent, defending the right to decide: Partit dels Socialistes (PSC), Initiative for Catalonia (ICV-EUiA ) , and d'Unitat Popular Bid (CUP ). The text is open to nuances, but CiU and ERC, a parliamentary majority, will not accept major changes.

The resolution does not set the date of the consultation, although both parties in the legislature signed agreement, have signed a commitment to hold the vote in 2014. Without the permission of the Government, the referendum is unconstitutional, so the claims and makes clear that it will look for any possible legal formula to perform: "They used all existing legal frameworks to implement the strengthening of democracy and the right to decide. "

The statement, a text of six points with a long preamble emphasizes that the Catalan government will dialogue with the state, but also makes clear that no agreement will be asked to help "the European institutions and the international community as a whole." From the query performed, CiU and ERC agree to be "scrupulously democratic" pluralism and ensuring citizens' access to all information.

This will be the fourth time that the Parliament proclaims the right to self-determination of Catalonia. But it will be the first to clearly set this right is specified in a query to proclaim independence. It is the first step in the process sovereigntist, to continue in the first half of this year with the creation of the Catalan Council of National Transition , designed to protect the process, and the opening of negotiations with the Spanish government to convene a referendum.

Declaration of Independence

Here is a translated version of the Declaration of Independence as listed in El Pais.

"Declaration of Sovereignty of the Catalan people"

"According to the democratically expressed will of the people of Catalonia, the Catalan Parliament agrees to declare the democratic sovereignty of the people of Catalonia as a political and legal, initiating the process to make the exercise of the right to decide how implementation of the right to self-determination of peoples, and to enforce the will of Catalonia form a new state within the European framework in accordance with the following principles:

1. Sovereignty. The people of Catalonia have, for reasons of democratic legitimacy, political subject matter of legal and sovereign.

2. Democratic legitimacy. The process of exercising the right to decide will scrupulously democratic, especially ensuring the plurality of choices and respect for all, through deliberation and dialogue within Catalan society with the aim that the pronouncement where the end result is the majority expression of the popular will.

3. Transparency. Shall be provided all the tools necessary for the whole population and Catalan society has all the information and knowledge necessary for the exercise of the right to decide and encourage its participation in the process.

4. Dialogue. Was bet on dialogue and negotiation with the Spanish government, the European institutions and the international community as a whole.

5. Europe. Was defend and promote the founding principles of the European Union, particularly the fundamental rights of citizens, democracy, commitment to the welfare state, solidarity between the different territories of the Union and the commitment to economic progress, social and cultural.

6. Legality. Was used all existing legal frameworks to implement the strengthening of democracy and the right to choose. "

Commitment to the Welfare State

Not sure if this is a translation issue but I could not help but laugh at the phrase in point number 5 promising a "commitment to the welfare state".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 Trillion Dollar Coin Idea Dies Sudden Death; Treasury, Fed Oppose Using Platinum Coin; Republican Strategy

At long last, a stupid, as well as illegal idea dies on the vine. Bloomberg reports
Treasury, Fed Oppose Using Platinum Coin to Avoid Debt Limit

The U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve oppose the idea of minting platinum coins as a way to avoid the U.S. debt ceiling, according to a statement from Treasury spokesman Anthony Coley.

“Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit,” Coley said in an e-mailed statement.

“There are only two options to deal with the debt limit: Congress can pay its bills or it can fail to act and put the nation into default,” according to a statement today from the White House.

“When Congressional Republicans played politics with this issue last time, putting us at the edge of default, it was a blow to our economic recovery, causing our nation’s credit rating to be downgraded,” the e-mailed White House statement says. “The President and the American people won’t tolerate Congressional Republicans holding the American economy hostage again simply so they can force disastrous cuts to Medicare and other programs the middle class depend on while protecting the wealthy. Congress needs to do its job.”

Hopefully that will stop the downright silly, if not idiotic commentary regarding the coin, but don't count on it.

I suggest this seven-step charade is what we will see.

Politics of the Debate

1. Obama will chastise Congress with talk of financial Armageddon if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling.
2. Congress will pretend to hold the president hostage
3. The secretary of the Treasury will get into the act with its own version of the default debate
4. Perhaps a few payments on non-critical budget items will be temporarily skipped
5. Wall Street will feign panic
6. Constituents will pressure Congress to approve a new debt ceiling
7. Congress will raise the ceiling with another useless warning about next time

To understand why a default is completely out of the question, please see Silly Worry of the Day: US Will Default; Politics of the Debate

Republican Strategy

As far as Republican strategy goes, I am in favor of shutting down the government unless there are significant budget cuts. Unfortunately, that will not happen. Republicans will cave in once heat from Wall Street begins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 France, the Hidden Zombie in Europe

Via Google Translate from Spanish, GurusBlog asks and answers the question Is France the zombie hidden in Europe?

Although still quite outside the focus of the media and investors as its risk premium relative to German bonds remains relatively low, for me, leaving aside the PIIGS, which are marked by blood and fire, France, is really the real zombie Europe, an economy that has been losing competitiveness rather quickly. Here are some data for me is the great Zombie in Europe and also on the legacy of Sarkozy Hollande mandate goes straight to the precipice.

In 1999 France sold 7% of world exports. Today only sells 3% and the figure continues to deteriorate.

In 2005 the trade balance was positive in France +0.5% of GDP today is negative -2.7% of GDP. Ie imports far exceed exports. The French economy is becoming less competitive, for example in cars and machinery equipment sales to China are seven times lower than the annual sales volume of these products from Germany.

High labor costs, which combine high wages, little flexibility to fire and high taxes. French workers are uq emenos hours work in the developed world and 86% of the contracts are fixed. 42 of every 100 euros of wage costs of a company are social charges or taxes in Germany are 34 out of 100 €, in UK 26 out of 100.

Since 2005, unit labor costs in France have not only increased, and the cost to produce a car in France have incrmeentado 17%, Germany 10%, Spain 5.8% and 2% in Ireland . In France a worker earns on average € 35.3 per hour worked, in Italy the average is 25.8 € and 22 € in UK and Spain.

The most immediate results: The results of French companies have fallen to 6.5% of GDP, a level that puts them at 60% of the European average. The reason is simple, French exports lost market share and the only way for companies to survive is to lower margins. But less margins means less money to invest in new plants or technology. So the R & D of French companies has fallen 50% in the last four years.

To top off the circle, Hollande government has decided that the state must suck more companies and limited part of the tax deductions they had. The result will be less profit and less investment.

Against this background, it seems difficult that economic growth sneaks by France in the coming years. In 2012, French GDP grew a measly 0.2%, the average increase of French GDP in the last 3 years was 1.2%, in Germany 2.7%. By 2013 it is expected that France into technical recession. Unemployment is highest in the last 14 years at a rate of 10.9% verus the German rate of 6.7% and is expected to Public Debt to GDP reached 97% in 2013, higher than the debt Spanish public.

Currently the French economy is the French state. The French state spending accounts for 57% of GDP. In the last eight years France's GDP has increased by a sad 7.3% (inflation adjusted). All growth has come through increased public spending and not the development of the private economy.

And with all the monster Papa French State refuses to stop growing. In 2011 and 2012 has presented a budget deficit of 5% of GDP, a level likely to be repeated in 2013

That is a very well presented set of statistics by Guru Huky, founder of GurusBlog. Indeed, French president Francois Hollande has made matters so much worse for France, as I have commented many times.

The remaining question at this point is how much longer France will remain a "hidden" zombie. It will be interesting to see the results (and the panic) once the bond market turns on France.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com