0 Student Debt "Lotto" Reality

In response to Trends in College Tuition vs. Bachelor’s Degree Wages; Interesting Demographics of Student Loan Debt History I received an interesting email from "JMM" who writes ...

I realize you are projecting what you believe will happen in the future, and that geometric growth in student debt is unsustainable, but your argument on student debt should be tempered by the current economic reality. Those who finish a degree are better off not only in income, but in reduced unemployment. Employers making hiring decisions place an emphasis on college. That is the bottom line. That trend is not going to change for a long, long time. I have known some very intelligent people that never went to school. They were disadvantaged because of it. Yes, some geniuses and talents make it without education (Steve Jobs and NBA players for example), and some people win the lottery. That doesn't make the lottery an investment strategy. Thanks for your time, JMM

Thank JMM

I happen to like your analogy to the lottery, except in reverse.

Take for example the last mega-lottery with a payout to a single winner of nearly a half-billion dollars. I bought lottery tickets because for the first time in a long time.

The odds favored entry (in terms of expected payout - assuming a single winner) yet nearly everyone was a loser. I did not win either.

The school "lotto" is not as bad, but it is very bad. Some do very well, many break even, and a large percentage lose. Earnings of those who do very well, may (on average) exceed those who don't, yet the number of people benefiting  minus the number who don't may very well be negative.

Regardless, the sheer number of students getting totally wiped out by going into debt to attend college is staggering, and unsustainable.

Here is the simple math: What's unsustainable by definition cannot last. Trends in college costs are unsustainable.

Reader Emails

By the way, I received many interesting emails regarding student loans and will publish some shortly. Thanks to all who responded.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 Republican Infighting Over Fiscal Cliff; Senator DeMint Says House Speaker Boehner's Proposal Will "Destroy American Jobs"; Reflections on "Hard Choices"; Game Theory

Republican House Speaker John Boehner’s has offered president Obama a proposal to generate $800 billion in new revenue. Obama rejected Boehner’s proposal in one hour flat because it does not go far enough in raising taxes on the wealthy.

Indeed, all Boehner proposed was closing loopholes. Yet, closing loopholes to raise $800 billion over ten years is too much for Tea-Party activists such as Senator Jim DeMint, co-founder of the Senate Tea Party caucus.

Bloomberg reports Republican DeMint Criticizes Boehner’s Deficit Plan.

House Speaker John Boehner’s proposal to generate $800 billion in new revenue “will destroy American jobs” and Republicans should oppose it, Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina said today.

The comments from DeMint, co-founder of the Senate’s anti- tax Tea Party caucus, represent a strong indictment of Boehner’s plan from a fellow Republican lawmaker. Boehner yesterday proposed a $2.2 trillion deficit-cutting plan that seeks $800 billion in revenue in the next decade from an overhaul of the tax code that would curb some breaks.

“Speaker Boehner’s $800 billion tax hike will destroy American jobs and allow politicians in Washington to spend even more, while not reducing our $16 trillion debt by a single penny,” DeMint said in a statement. “Republicans must oppose tax increases and insist on real spending reductions that shrink the size of government and allow Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money.”

Other Republicans back Boehner’s offer including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Boehner's Plan Dead-on-Arrival

Boehner's plan is dead-on-arrival regardless of how many Republicans are in favor of it.

The president will not accept any plan that does not hike taxes on the wealthy, and unlike a few months ago, Obama is prepared to offer little or nothing to get his way.

Reflections on "Hard Choices"

Last summer, Obama said he was prepared to make "hard choices".

In return for higher taxes, I had this three-point proposal

1. Ending collective bargaining of public unions
2. Passing national right-to-work laws
3. Scrapping the Davis-Bacon prevailing wage law

Negotiation tactics would have been easy.

Start by offering higher taxes on those making over $1 million, then work down to $250,000, putting pressure on the Democrats every step of the way. If Obama rejected the offer, the Republicans would have had the upper hand in who was to blame. If Obama accepted, we would have negotiated real reforms.

But No!

Republicans flushed a golden opportunity for "hard choices" right down the toilet.

Why?

Republicans were foolishly cocky as to their odds of winning the election.

As a result, we now witness massive infighting of Republicans, instead of massive Democrat infighting over "hard choices" a few short months ago.

The bottom line is we are going to suffer from higher taxes and get little in return for it, "not reducing our $16 trillion debt by a single penny” as Senator DeMint says.

Game Theory

At this point, game theory suggests both sides may have more to gain by doing nothing than compromising. If so, welcome to the fiscal cliff.

I am actually OK with that vs. the alternative of unwinding everything. We do need to address the deficit.

Unfortunately, game theory also suggest a deal in 2013, undoing the fiscal cliff, further kicking the deficit-can down the road.

Bright Opportunity Ahead

Looking ahead, I do see a shining light.
Rand Paul 2016! 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 Aging Population: Old Problem, New Reality; Reflections on Difficult Trade-Offs

Here is an interesting video in which Bloomberg's Mia Saini looks at the effect of an aging population on a country's economy.



Link if video does not play: Old Problem, New Reality

As a consequence of the youth gap and a record low birthrate in the US, "the alternative would be to keep on increasing taxes or reduce benefits for the elderly".

The US birthrate per thousand was 122.7 in 1957, it was 63.2 in 2011.

Difficult Trade-Offs 

In regards to the problem facing aging countries, Singapore prime minister stated "None of them have come to any very satisfactory solution because the trade-offs are difficult ones."

US demographics are better than Europe and Asia, but with US Medicare and Social Security promises related to costs far greater than elsewhere, the US is in no better shape.

There is no alternative to massively increasing taxes unless Congress comes up with genuine health care reform to rein in cost of medicine. Even then, age limits will need to rise and some rationing of services near the end of people's lives will be necessary.

Demographics are such that few politicians are willing to tell US citizens we cannot afford the promises we have made, so the pretending continues.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

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0 Deflationary Trends in Consumer Credit

A few charts from the New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit will help put into perspective the deflationary forces facing the Fed.

Household Debt and Credit Developments in 2012 Q3

Aggregate consumer debt fell again in the third quarter, by $74 billion, continuing the nearly four-year downward trend in household debt. As of September 30, 2012, total consumer indebtedness was $11.31 trillion, 0.7% lower than its level in the second quarter of 2012 and down $1.37 trillion from the 2008 Q3 peak.

Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, continue to drive the decline in overall indebtedness. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports continued to drop, and now stand at $8.03 trillion, a 1.5% decrease from the level in 2012 Q2.

Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) balances dropped by $16 billion (2.7%).

Non-mortgage household debt balances jumped by 2.3% in the third quarter to $2.7 trillion, boosted by increases of $18 billion in auto loans, $42 billion in student loans, and $2 billion in credit card balances.

Total Debt



click on any chart for sharper image

The deleveraging (deflationary) trend in consumer debt is unmistakable.

Number of Loans



There is certainly no jump in the demand for credit card, mortgage, auto, or home equity loans.

Loan Delinquencies by Type



Deleveraging of credit card and mortgage debt continues. Some deleveraging is via default. The rest is slow, steady debt reduction with reluctance to take on more debt. 

The increase in student loans (and delinquencies as well) buck the deleveraging trend for two reasons

1. Student debt is government guaranteed
2. Student debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy

Guaranteed or not, students have no way to pay back their debt as real wages for college grads declines while tuition costs soar.

Please see Trends in College Tuition vs. Bachelor’s Degree Wages; Demographics of Student Loan Debt History for some very interesting as well as surprising charts on student debt demographics.

Non-Mortgage Balances



Auto loans have recovered a bit (primarily because cars eventually wear out). Yet, auto loan balances remain below the 2005 peak.

The only item preventing a huge plunge in non-mortgage debt is student loans.

The Fed has been fighting consumer deleveraging with round after round of QE but the above charts show it has not spurred consumer demand for credit. Those rounds of QE have, for now, put a bid on financial assets (stocks, bonds and commodities) but has done nothing positive for the real economy.

More specifically, those rounds of QE have artificially lowered interest rates, destroying those on fixed income in the process.

For a discussion as to how Fed policy is tantamount to outright theft for the benefit of banks and the wealthy, please see Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com

0 More Nannycrat Insanity: EU Wants to Ban Youth Unemployment

Youth unemployment is shockingly high in Greece, Spain, and Italy as shown by Europe's Most Tragic Graph by The Atlantic.

Young workers in Greece and Spain are facing an absolutely egregious work drought, where half of high-school and college-graduates ready to find a job aren't finding one. And 55% isn't the ceiling. Both economies are shrinking and unemployment is a lagging indicator -- as Americans have learned, the rate can keep going up after an economy technically starts growing. This economic tragedy can easily become a social disaster as young promising people either leave their country to work somewhere else or else turn to illegal or violent activities to protest policies wrecking their economies or lash out against a country that's leaving them behind.

EU Wants to Ban Youth Unemployment

Looking for a reason for the rise of the neo-Nazis in Greece? Look no further than economic depression and over 50% youth unemployment. So what to do about it?

Courtesy of Google translate from German of Frankfurter Allgemeine, please consider EU Wants to Ban Youth Unemployment.

The European Commission wants to oblige EU countries to all people under 25 to secure a job. How states are to implement the guarantee, it will not betray.

The Member States of the European Union should guarantee all people aged less than 25 years in the future, within four months some form of employment. These governments should issue a so-called youth guarantee, as stated in a regulatory package that wants the department responsible Commissioner László Andor imagine this Wednesday in Brussels.

Economic Idiocy

It would be nice if the economic illiterates in the nannyzone would stop and figure out why youth unemployment is so high.

The primary answer is work rules, pension rules, and other rules are so harsh that companies simply do not want to hire workers.

France is heading down the same idiotic path with an economically insane proposal by French president Francois Hollande "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It"

Any clear-thinking person should quickly realize that if companies cannot fire workers they will be extremely reluctant to hire them in the first place.

Thus, it should be no surprise to discover French Unemployment Highest in 14 Years (And It's Going to Get Much Worse).

Moreover, Italy, Spain, France, and Greece are already suffering from massive public sectors. Those sectors need to shrink, not expand.

In France, Government spending amounts to 55% of total domestic output. For discussion, please see Hollande's Honeymoon is Over; 54% of Voters Unhappy; Unions Promise "War" in September.

Now the nannycrats want government to take over still more of total output instead of shrinking it, at a time when every country in the EU is struggling to reduce deficits.

Insanity does not begin to describe the stupidity of this proposal, which I might add (the EU offers no way to implement in the first place).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://economic-trends.blogspot.com